• Q1e sales flat q-o-q, slight margin improvement to 5.6% adj. EBITA
• '25e-'27e adj. EBITA down ~7% on FX and slightly slower cost cuts
• '25e adj. EBITA now in line with guidance; P/E 9-7x, peers 13-11x

Q1 expectations

For Q1 we expect sales in line with the Q4 level, contracting 9% y-o-y (-10% org.), and a book-to-bill of 1.1x, marking a bit of a normalisation after the unusually strong Q1 figure of 1.4x, which contained some longer-term orders that will not yet have been converted into sales. On the adj. EBITA margin, we expect 5.6% for a 0.4pp q-o-q increase as cost reductions initiated in H2'24 start taking effect. We expect SEK 4m in non-recurring costs related to the main-market listing process.

Estimate changes

We cut '25e-'27e sales by ~2%, mainly driven by FX. Costs should also decline on FX, but given the CEO's comments at yesterday's CMD about cost reductions taking a bit longer than his initial ambition, we temper our expectations somewhat on this side of the equation, leading to adj. EBITA cuts of ~7%. We are still a bit below the sales and a bit above the '25 margin guidance, which net puts our '25e EBITA in line with guidance.

Company valuation

Our view remains that demand will stabilise through H1 and improve in H2, but the timing may be influenced by the economic climate and potential tariff impacts (7% of sales to US, mainly from Enedo). Confirmation from continued order recovery (book-to-bill >1.0) will be key. At yesterday's CMD, management confirmed the company is actively scouting M&A targets (targets one deal in '25) and is well-positioned for defence sector growth. The move to the Nasdaq Main Market has now been approved, and management hopes this will improve liquidity. Management also reiterated medium-term targets of 15% annual growth (10% organic) and a 9% EBITA margin. On our much more conservative estimates, the company currently trades at 9-7x '25e-'27e adj. P/E, compared to Nordic peers at 13-11x and its historical median of 13-9x. We main