• '25e-'27e EBITA down 13-8%
• Adverse impact from stronger SEK
• '25e EV/EBITA ~8x, ~50% below peers

What to expect in Q1'25

We expect sales of SEK 1,930m for Q1'25, implying 7% organic y-o-y growth in addition to a 2% FX headwind (March carries a disproportionately large impact in Q1). Moreover, the Easter holidays occur in mid-to-late April in 2025 compared to late March to early April in 2024, adversely impacting growth comps. We anticipate a gross margin of just short of 31%, in line with the previous year's level. Our updated EBITA estimate is SEK 119m, which corresponds to an EBITA margin of 6.2%. On a y-o-y basis, this implies a decline, but investors should note that EBITA is slightly lower y-o-y due to the sale and leaseback of real estate. Adjusting for that, y-o-y EBITA growth is more or less zero. We anticipate a working capital release in Q1, to the tune of SEK 90m, as we anticipate some tie-up due to the timing of the Easter holidays.

'25e-'27e adj. EBITA down 13-8%

We cut '25e-'27e sales by 3-4% and EBITA by 13-8% on the back of FX as well as more conservative assumptions regarding organic growth. A significant portion of the earnings originate from GBP-denominated businesses, such as Solent, which makes up ~1/3 of EBITA. Therefore, a stronger SEK adversely impacts Humble's earnings. Moreover, it is likely that Humble's capacity-increasing investments will come to fruition during the year, slightly offsetting the negative, FX-related revisions. In the next couple of years, however, we could finally see Humble's gross profit benefit from significantly lower freight rates and a weaker USD, both of which have declined significantly.

Valuation

Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading around 8x '25e EV/EBITA, while peers are trading at an average of 15-16x despite growing earnings at a generally slower rate. However, we note that peers are trading ~10% above their historical average.