Investments case:

BioPorto is scaling the sales of its FDA-approved ProNephro AKI (NGAL) pediatric test and NGAL test for RUO, particularly in the US. The company looks to convert rising awareness to sustainable recurring revenues in the AKI diagnostic market, estimated to have a total addressable market (TAM) of USD 3.0 billion[1] and a 5% CAGR, supported by a shift in diagnostic paradigms.

In 2024, NGAL sales grew 34% y/y in the US and 24% y/y total as BioPorto progresses towards its ambitions for revenue of DKK 80- 125m in 2026 (cash flow positive by end-2026) and DKK +700m (USD +100m) by 2029. Increased sales activities will be supported by existing partnerships with Roche and Beckman Coulter, two of BioPorto’s five key prioritized partners, and additional partnerships. The NGAL test is FDA-approved for Roche platforms, with Beckman Coulter FDA-approval expected in 2026.

BioPorto may also benefit from inclusion in the KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) best-practice guidelines, which are expected to be updated in late 2025 and take effect in H1 2026. KDIGO inclusion can drive pull-through demand in the market as reimbursement decisions in developed healthcare systems often align with KDIGO recommendations. Inclusion would position the NGAL test to be the preferred diagnostic tool.

Using a DCF model (see pages 2 and 3), we find that the market implies a Probability of Success (PoS) exceeding 100% for the pediatric ProNephro AKI (NGAL) launch, indicating full pricing of its successful commercialization in the U.S. However, when also considering NGAL for adult use, broader applications, and global markets—representing a TAM of USD 3 billion annually—the market implied base case PoS is around 43%.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Bioporto for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Claus Thestrup 4:35 PM, 15-04-2025

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