• Q1e sales -2% y-o-y, orders +10%, adj. EBITA margin 6.3% (6.5%)
• '25e-'27e adj. EBITA up 6-9% on Autofric acquisition, 6.6x EV/EBIT
• Good to see return to M&A, looks accretive, Q2e ND/EBITDA 1.7x

Q1 expectations

For Q1, we expect sales to be down 2% y-o-y, but orders to grow by 10%, as we believe the order trend shift seen in Q4 will continue throughout this year. While we do not think this will be quite enough to drive y-o-y sales growth in Q1, we expect it to start in Q2. We forecast an adj. EBITA margin of 6.3% (6.5%) in Q1, making it the weakest quarter of the year in our estimates, but note that the margin can be quite volatile between quarters.

Estimate changes

We raise '25e sales by 3%, and '26e-'27e by 5%, driven by the Autofric acquisition announced in the quarter. Adj. EBITA is raised by 6% in '25e, and 9% in '26e-'27e. Autofric will be consolidated at some point during Q2. We do not know which segment it will be part of, but we preliminarily add it to the E&E segment.

Company valuation

It is good to see the company finally restarting its M&A journey with the acquisition of Autofric (see financials on p. 3). Autofric specialises in designing and manufacturing screw-based equipment, primarily screw presses for dewatering sludge and screw conveyors for transporting bulk materials across various industries like water treatment and manufacturing. Alongside its proprietary equipment, the company also provides contract manufacturing services. The company has a '17-'24 organic sales CAGR of 13%, and delivered an EBIT margin of 14% in '24, although the margin has been volatile and averaged 10% during '22-'24. At the 14% margin, the acquisition multiple was 6.6x EV/EBIT (9.0x inc. max. earn-out), and at a 10% margin it would have been 8.9x (12.1x). The volatile margin makes a judgement on the fairness of the multiple a bit difficult, but considering the strong organic growth and good product fit in the Berner group, we think it looks attractive. With Q2e ND/EBITD