Ahead of Atria's Q3 results, we trim 2026E-28E adjusted EBIT by 4-6% owing to the ASF outbreak in Finland and expected raw material inflation. We expect solid underlying performance in Finland, while the company expects a EUR 4-5m negative impact from ASF in 2026 due to restricted export opportunities for pork. The Swedish market has benefitted from lower food VAT and we expect further growth from an expanded offering in the country. Atria's investment programme is proceeding and we expect gradual earnings support from 2027. We derive a slightly lower DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 18.4-22.5 (18.7-22.8) per share.

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