• Order intake +37% y-o-y on return of one key customer
• '25-'26e EBIT up 13-6% on higher gross margin
• Share trading at 7x '25e EV/EBIT

Strong order intake and gross margin

Pricer delivered soft Q4 sales but another strong quarter for profitability. Sales were SEK 630m (-15% vs. ABGSCe), representing -22% growth y-o-y, adjusted for FX. Sales were hurt in part by continued low activity in France. However, order intake came in at an impressive SEK 916m (+37% y-o-y), which was in line with estimates (+2% vs. ABGSCe), with large announced orders from Canada and Finland. We expect order intake to decrease in Q1'25e both y-o-y and q-o-q, as comps are tough. The increased gross margin was driven by favourable customer and product mix, as well as lower component costs. While the GM could come down in H1 if French customers return after pent-up demand, we remain positive about the gross margin trend. With the better gross margin and lower opex, EBIT increased y-o-y to SEK 51m (vs. SEK 20m in Q4'23). EBIT decreased slightly q-o-q, with a margin contraction from 10% to 8%, although the FY'24 margin of 7% which is a major improvement from 0.6% in FY'23.

Estimate changes

We tweak '25e sales by 2% after the report, as FY'24 ended with a strong order backlog and presents light comps in terms of sales. We increase gross margins by 1.4pp and raise the opex base, as we forecast increased personnel costs in order to support growth, and expect the cost savings programme to have had its full effect in FY'24, creating a low base. This results in changes to '25-'26e EBIT of 13-6%.

Closing in on EBIT margin target

We estimate '27e sales of SEK 4.3bn, corresponding to a '25-'27e sales CAGR of 19%. Together with more gross margin improvements and declining opex, we expect Pricer to report 2025e EBIT of SEK 256m for a margin of 7.9%, closing in on its >8% EBIT margin target. The share is trading at 7x-5x '25-'26e EV/EBIT on our updated 2025 estimates.