• Preliminary Q4 EBITA ~40% below FactSet consensus
• We expect consensus to cut '25 EBITA by ~15% and '26 by ~5%
• Company implementing new org. changes to save SEK 120m

Preliminary Q4 EBITA ~40% below cons.

Coor issued a profit warning today, saying that it expects Q4 sales to decline 2-3% y-o-y (FactSet consensus -1%) with the EBITA margin at 3.1-3.3% (FactSet 5.2%), corresponding to EBITA of SEK 99-106m, or ~40% below the current FactSet consensus of SEK 169m. The company says that problems with efficiency in Sweden and Denmark are the main reason for the lower margins, and we understand that the company, put simply, is working more hours to fulfil its services. It is still a bit unclear exactly what has caused the sudden inefficiencies, but we believe it could be related to leadership issues. With former CEO (2013-2020) Mikael Stöhr back as chairman, he can hopefully help steer the company back to better performance. We expect consensus to cut 2025 EBITA by ~15% and 2026 by ~5% on the back of the profit warning. Management told us that it has already started to implement changes and that it expect Q1 to be better than Q4.

New changes to the organisation

Coor also announced that it will complement its existing cost savings programme (which has shown fewer results than expected) with a new reorganisation focused on simplifying the structure to more easily realise synergies. It expects to cut around 130 positions and save around SEK 120m. The program will be implemented in 2025 and aims to ensure that it delivers on its 5.5% EBITA margin target by 2026 (FactSet consensus 5.5%).