• New defence order from BAE Systems worth SEK 53m
• Additional order from Denmark also expected near-term...
• ...bringing the total defence order backlog to ~SEK 350m

New defence order, and faster-than-expected delivery

Clavister has received a new order worth SEK 53m to supply BAE Systems with CyberArmour for its CV90 platform. This constitutes Clavister's third CyberArmour order from BAE Systems. This order does not come as a surprise to us, as we know that Clavister's CyberArmour solution is designed into BAE Systems's CV90 platform and that BAE received an order from Sweden earlier this year for new CV90s to replace the vehicles Sweden sent to Ukraine, as well as new CV90s to be sent directly to Ukraine (in total ~90 vehicles, we think). Even if this was expected, we think this is positive news, and we also find it positive that Clavister expects to start delivering on this order already in the second half of 2025 (we expected 2026).

Sitting on a significant backlog with deliveries ramping up

Clavister has just started to deliver on its large CyberArmour order book: we estimate ~SEK 20m in sales 2024e compared to a total announced order value for Clavister of SEK ~270m (Netherlands, Czech Rep., Slovakia, and now Sweden). As deliveries are ramping up, we think CyberArmour sales will more than double in 2025e. In addition to this, Denmark recently placed an order for CV90s with BAE (115 new vehicles plus 44 upgrades), i.e. larger than Sweden's order, that we think will lead to an order for Clavister of potentially ~SEK 100m during 2025, with deliveries from 2027 (see our comment). Clavister's total potential order backlog related to the CV90 platform (including expected Denmark order) is therefore ~SEK 350m in the five-year period between 2024e-2028e, which we think significantly de-risks growth estimates. Assuming ~40-50% gross margins, and the fact that Clavister requires little to zero new investments to deliver on those contracts, we think the total incremental cash flo