This week's case features Carlsberg, a non-cyclical company whose earnings could benefit from a weaker US dollar due to its high exposure to sales in emerging markets such as China and Southeast Asia. Investors will focus on the ECB's rate decision on the weekly macro agenda. Meanwhile, technical indicators for the major markets are looking weak.

Consumer staples companies are perceived as less cyclical, which is currently an advantage in the equity market, and are sometimes seen as bond proxies due to their predictable dividend yields. They therefore become more attractive when interest rates fall. Brewers belong to this group. In the Nordic countries, Carlsberg is the bellwether brewer. Carlsberg has a significant presence in China and Southeast Asia. A further weakening of the US dollar could be positive for sales and earnings development in these countries. The valuation of Carlsberg’s’ shares appear low by historical standards.
 
The ECB will make an interest rate announcement on Thursday 12 September, with the market expecting a 25-bps cut. Investors will also be looking for clues as to how many rates cuts the ECB is planning in the future.
 
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As a globally operating financial expert with Swiss roots, Vontobel specializes in wealth management, active asset management and investment solutions. Structured Solutions & Treasury bundles different investment solutions for private investors either directly or via ecosystems. Read more

About Carlsquare

Carlsquare is a global research firm and financial advisor, focusing on M&A, Equity
Research and Growth Equity. Carlsquare has 150 employees with deep sector knowledge in all 11
GICS sectors. The senior equity research team has extensive experience about the stock
environment and several business sectors. The team produces company research reports,
independent valuations and trading notes. The group have offices in Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Poland, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. Read more

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Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: Probably a good time for Carlsberg