• EBIT SEK -28m vs. ABG SEK -25m — lower volumes
• Q1 likely better — no maintenance
• Conference call at 12 CET

EBIT SEK -28m vs. ABG SEK -25m

EBIT was SEK -28m, which compares to our estimate of SEK -25m. The small miss was mainly driven by lower sales volumes. Note that Rottneros sold emission rights totalling SEK 76m, i.e. clean EBIT was SEK -104m vs. our SEK -90m. The company had a production of 75kt and deliveries were -2.6% lower than production. EPS came in at SEK -0.18 vs. our estimate of SEK -0.09. Dividends have been removed for '24 given the weak financial performance (SEK 0.5/sh in '23).

We had the following EBIT bridge in our estimates: we expected Q4 clean EBIT of ~SEK -90m, down from SEK 29m in Q3'24 (Q4'23 SEK -100m). The main effects q-o-q were likely: SEK -30m from lower pulp prices, SEK +11m from FX, SEK -10m from wood costs, and SEK -90m from the annual maintenance. We arrived at a Q4 clean EBIT of ~SEK -90m. Note that Rottneros will book SEK +65m-70m in one-off gains related to the sale of emission quotas, i.e. reported EBIT will likely be SEK -20m-25m.

Higher selling prices, but lower volumes/higher costs

Q4’24 EBIT was SEK -28m. The effects y-o-y were SEK +71m from price and currency, SEK -26m from volume, SEK -27m from variable costs, SEK -20m from fixed costs, SEK -14m from depreciation, and SEK +88m from other (largely driven by the sale of emission rights. Demand for pulpwood continues to be high while supply is low. However, Rottneros has had good supply during Q4 and Baltic imports have been at a normal level. Note that wood costs are up from already high levels.

Q1 likely better — no maintenance

Q1 clean EBIT (excl. SEK 76m from emission rights) should see SEK +100m in less maintenance, and SEK +20m in higher volumes and prices. This points to a Q1 clean EBIT of SEK 5-20m. Rottneros will host a conference call at 12:00 CET which can be accessed here.