• Q4 due Thursday, 6 February
• We expect strong order intake on pent-up demand
• We increase '25e-'26e EPS and order forecasts

Encouraging announced orders against ATH sales comps

For Q4'24, we expect sales of SEK 739m (-7.7% y-o-y, -8.3% organic), and orders of SEK 896m (34% y-o-y). Q4'23 is currently the strongest recorded quarter in terms of sales by far, and presents tough comps. We expect order intake to significantly pick up again after the past two quarters' soft numbers on pent-up demand and the two announced orders (SEK 485m from Sobeys and an S Group order of undisclosed value). We estimate a gross margin of 20.5%, down 1.6pp q-o-q, on less favourable customer mix. In terms of EBIT, we forecast SEK 53m vs. SEK 20m in Q4’23.

We raise orders and tweak our sales forecasts

We raise order intake for Q4e, resulting in 6-3% higher order intake for '24e-'26e, mainly on recently announced orders. In addition, we lower our Q4 sales assumptions, as we are cautious on delivery expectations. The estimate cuts are partly offset by improved FX movements; in total, we lower sales by 1% for '24e and slightly increase '25e-'26e sales. Furthermore, we expect a slightly higher GM for '24e-'26e (+0-0.2pp). As a result, we change our EBIT estimates by -2% to 5%, implying an EBIT margin of ~7% in '24e-'26e. Finally, the SEK 300m bonds issued in December have an interest rate 287.5 bps lower than the previous rate, and we cut net financials by 25-50%, supporting a 10% and 7% rise in EPS estimates for '25e and '26e.

Share trading at 6.7x '25e EV/EBIT

On our full-year estimates, FY'24 represents the softest growth since 2019, but we see good prospects for future growth as the market improves and Pricer continues to develop, with e.g. the recently announced Pricer Avenue system and the collaboration with Focal Systems. We forecast '26e sales of SEK 3.7bn, corresponding to a '24e-'26e sales CAGR of 11%. The share is trading at 6.7x EV/EBIT on our new 2025 forecasts.