• Q3 figures below due to maintenance on Brage
• Løvmeis plugged and abandoned, Bounty next
• We reiterate our fair value range of NOK 1.2-3.2

Q3 figures below due to maintenance on Brage

In Q3, both revenues of NOK 130m and EBITDAX of NOK 90m were below our estimates of NOK 190m and NOK 137m, respectively, mainly due to reduced gas production from Brage in September caused by a 23-day planned maintenance shutdown. We note that this still represents a significant y-o-y increase due to the Brage acquisition being included in the reported numbers. Net production in Q3'24 came in at 2,200boe/d vs. only 29boe/d in H2'23, explaining the uplift in revenues. The company exited Q3'24 with a cash position of NOK 43m, up from NOK 25m at the end of Q2. Going forward, we update our model with our new oil and gas price view as described in our Crude Quarterly Q4'24, meaning a Brent assumption of USD 75 to YE'25, and USD 80 thereafter.

Løvmeis plugged and abandoned, Bounty next

In Q4'24, Petrolia Noco provided an update to the market regarding the Løvmeis exploration well (EQNR 40%, Orlen 40%, PNO 20%), which has been classified as a technical discovery and will be permanently plugged and abandoned. Previous indications pointed to potential of 2.4mmboe (unrisked), which would have added value of ~NOK 0.3-0.9/sh. We note that we did not assign any value to the Løvmeis well in our NAV. On Bounty (dry with shows, drilled in 2022), the interpretations of the well results are positive and de-risk the up-flank high-impact prospect. A well will be drilled in the neighbouring licence in Q1'25 that could prove up the Bounty reserves.

We reiterate our fair value range of NOK 1.2-3.2

We now estimate a core NAV of NOK 3.2/sh for Petrolia Noco, and we estimate a fair value range of NOK 1.2-3.2/sh. If we work backwards to the discounted oil price, we argue that an oil price of ~USD 58/bbl is discounted in Petrolia Noco based on the current share price of NOK 1.25.