• Q4e sales of SEK 23.9m, down 14% y-o-y, EBIT SEK -7m (-6m)
• NW&FT and FW weak while momentum continues in GC&MP
• Hopeful of a recovery in '25e, lower interest rates to drive NW&FT

Q4 expectations

In the company's seasonally weakest quarter, Q4, we expect sales of SEK 23.9m, down 14% y-o-y, as the NW&FT and FW segments continue to face headwinds from weak end-markets, while GC&MP continues its strong performance thanks to good product momentum with new customer launches during the year. On EBIT, we have SEK -7m (-6m), down only slightly y-o-y due to lower sales but improved cost control.

Estimate changes

We only fine-tune our estimates, reducing '24e-'26e sales by 0.4%, and leaving '25e-'26e margins intact.

Company valuation

We remain hopeful of a sales recovery in '25e, as the effects of lower interest rates should start trickling down to consumers in Q1, which in turn should help demand in the NW&FT segment relatively quickly. The effect on the construction reliant FW segment should be slower, but a recovery starting in H2'25 is our current best guess. Simultaneously, we expect momentum in GC&MP to keep up. The company is currently trading at 2.6-2.0x '24e-'26e EV/Sales vs. peers at 3.4-2.3x. As our long-term view of the company remains largely unchanged, we reiterate our fair value range of SEK 2.0-3.0.