• Q4e sales -4% y-o-y (-11% org.), adj. EBITA margin 4.6% (6.5%)
• Q4 to suffer from demand weakness, but orders to keep improving
• Demand to stabilise in H1, pick-up in H2, cost reductions effect in H1

Q4 expectations

We make no significant changes to our Q4 estimates, still expecting order intake of SEK 540m, sales of SEK 533m, down 4% y-o-y (-11% organically), and an adj. EBITA margin of 4.6% (6.5%). This implies that Inission will narrowly beat its full-year guidance of SEK 2.1bn-2.2bn in sales and an EBITA margin of 6%, and we estimate SEK 2.15bn and 6.1%, respectively. Order intake improved in Q3, resulting in a book-to-bill slightly above 1.0 in September, and we expect this to have continued during Q4, setting the stage for a stabilisation in H1, and recovery in H2 this year.

Estimate changes

We fine-tune our estimates, reducing '25e-'26e sales and EBITA by ~2.5%, as a result of the slightly later timing of our expected return to growth in '25.

Company valuation

We reiterate our view that demand will stabilise in H1 and pick-up in H2, and we want to see a book-to-bill above 1.0 in the coming quarters to confirm this view. Cost reduction efforts have intensified given the weaker demand, and we expect most of the impact from these to come through in Q1, with full impact from Q2. The company is currently trading at 11-8x '24e-'26e P/E vs. Nordic peers at 16-12x and compared to its historical median of 13-9x. As our long-term view of the company remains largely unchanged, we reiterate our fair value range of SEK 50-70.