• Q4 report postponed to 28 March due to rights issue
• Preliminary Q4 figures to be published around 27 January
• At current SP, we estimate 83m shares issued for SEK 122m

Q4 expectations

One eMELT-iD order was announced during Q4, and we expect one Freemelt ONE delivery to have been made. This leads us to our sales estimate of SEK 6.75m (7.65m). Forecasting no significant changes in the cost structure, we get an EBIT estimate of SEK -22.9m (-19.4m). Due to the planned rights issue announced in a press release on 20 December, the company will publish some preliminary Q4 figures around January 27th, and postpone its full Q4 report publication to 28 March.

Estimate changes

Due to taking a somewhat more cautious view on delivery timings, we reduce our '25e-'26e sales by 32% and 10%, respectively.

Company valuation

In December, Freemelt announced its intention to carry out a rights issue of SEK ~100m, pending a decision at an extraordinary general meeting on 24 January. To cover potential liquidity needs during the process, the company has received a bridge loan of SEK 5m from its largest shareholder, Industrifonden. SEK 90m of the targeted SEK 100m are covered by subscription commitments and guarantee undertakings, SEK 30m of which are from board members and management. The subscription period in the rights issue is expected to run from 5 February to 19 February. In addition to shares, those who subscribe will also receive warrants (we guess 1 warrant per 3 shares). Each warrant entitles the holder to subscribe for one new share between 2 June and 16 June 2026. The subscription price will be 70% of the VWAP from 18 May to 29 May 2026, but minimum the quotient value per share and maximum 175% of the subscription price in the rights issue, which is yet to be determined. At most, the warrants could add an additional ~SEK 60m to the company. At the current share price, we estimate a total of 83m shares will be issued for proceeds of SEK 122m after fees.