• Crypto prices are on a strong run
• We raise our '25e-'26e AUM and adj. EBIT by 17-18%
• '25e adj. EV/EBIT of 4x with '25e-'26e dividend yield of 8%-9%

Several possible reasons for crypto rally

The price of Bitcoin has risen by 68% since 31 September 2024, and the price of Ethereum has risen by 54%. There are several possible reasons for this, but many seem related to the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States. Trump has made several statements indicating that he will take a crypto-friendly stance, and newly appointed SEC chairman Paul Atkins might be another indication of this.

'25e-'26e up on rising prices, Q4'24e costs up on marketing

We have raised our cost assumptions for Q4'24e following a recent marketing campaign as well as bonus-related payments to employees following what we believe will be a strong Q4'24e. We have also raised our '24e-'26e AUM by 19-17% on the back of the rally in crypto prices. We have only fine-tuned our '25e-'26e cost assumptions, as we believe the scalability of CoinShares will start to show in the coming two years. This leads us to raise '25e-'26e adj. EBIT by 17-18%.

2025e adj. EV/EBIT of 4x, divi. yield in '25e-'26e of 8%-9%

CoinShares is currently trading at a '25e-'26e dividend yield of 8%-9% and '25e adj. EV/EBIT of 4x. The company is trading 71-66% below asset management peers on EV/EBITDA in '24e-'26e. We move our fair value range to SEK 70-125 (61-115) on the back of our estimate changes.