• 22% ARR growth and a solid 11% adj. EBITDA beat
• '25 guidance raised; adj. EBITDA now guided DKK 70m-75m
• Solid report, but expect limited consensus EBITDA revisions

Q4 numbers vs. ABGSCe

OrderYOYO's Q4 GMV of ~DKK 3.8bn came in 11% above our estimate, while ARR of DKK 362m came in 3% above ABGSCe of DKK 351m. This equates to 22% y-o-y ARR growth vs. our 19% estimate. The company will not provide a breakdown on churn, uplift, and ARR new sales until the annual report due on 20 March. Q4 net revenue of DKK 90m beat our estimate of DKK 82m and corresponds to 24% y-o-y growth. Moving to profitability, adj. EBITDA for the quarter of DKK 18.2m and cash EBITDA of DKK 11.1m compare to our estimates of DKK 16.3m and DKK 8.8m. Despite the strong top-line beat, we gather that the smaller relative DKK beat on profitability is due to a higher share of lower-margin hardware sales, as well as a faster-than-expected ramp-up of employees.

FY'25 guidance raised

As we had anticipated, the trading update included an upgrade of the FY'25 guidance. OrderYOYO now expects FY'25 GMV of DKK 4,000m-4,200m (vs. unrevised ABGSCe of DKK 4,139m), ARR of DKK 410m-420m (ABGSCe DKK 414m), net revenues of DKK380m-390m (ABGSCe DKK 377m), adj. EBITDA of DKK 70m-75m (ABGSCe DKK 84m), and cash EBITDA of DKK 43m-48m (ABGSCe DKK 54m). The upgrade comes amid a stronger-than-expected Q4, suggesting solid operational momentum, but we also suspect more clarity on the recent acquisition of App4 explains a portion of the upgrade.

Consensus estimate revisions

Overall, we expect limited consensus estimate revisions, minding that '25e adj. EBITDA is already materially above guidance and OrderYOYO's history of frequent guidance upgrades. No conference call will be held today.