Rottneros
Rottneros - Q3 slightly below, maintenance in Q4 (ABG Sundal Collier)
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EBIT SEK 40m vs. ABG SEK 47mEBIT was SEK 40m, which compares to our estimate of SEK 47m. The miss was mainly driven by lower sales volumes and higher costs (wood), which were partly offset by higher selling prices (+4% vs our estimate). Note that production was also higher than expected, which likely boosted EBITDA somewhat. The company had a production of 91kt and deliveries were 9% lower than production. Production start of Rottneros' molded fibre trays JV with Arctic Paper has been delayed to Q4 (vs. Q3), due to longer than expected transport times for equipment. As such, total '24 capex has been raised to ~SEK 460m vs. ~SEK 430m previously. EPS came in at SEK 0.18 vs. our estimate of SEK 0.23. We had the following EBIT bridge in our estimates: We expected Q3 clean EBIT of SEK ~47m, up from SEK 31m in Q2'24, but more in line with the SEK 49m in Q3’23. The main effects q-o-q were likely: SEK +25m from higher pulp prices, SEK -4m from FX, SEK -10m from wood costs, and SEK +5m from a reversal of seasonal salary adjustments. We arrived at a Q3 clean EBIT of SEK ~47m. Higher selling prices, but lower volumes/higher costsQ3’24 EBIT was SEK 40m. The effects y-o-y were SEK +120m from price and currency, SEK -52m from volume, SEK -46m from variable costs, SEK -25m from fixed costs, and SEK -5m from other. Demand for pulpwood continues to be high while supply is low. However, Rottneros has had good supply during Q3 and Baltic imports have been at a normal level. Note that wood costs are up from already high levels. Q4 likely weaker driven by maintenanceQ4 will likely be weaker than Q3, driven by the annual maintenance stop, which was postponed from Q3 (~SEK -90m), somewhat mitigated by higher volumes. We expect Q4 clean EBIT of SEK -35-50m. Rottneros will host a conference call at 12:00 CET which can be accessed here. |
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